Evolution of GDP

In the euro area, GDP increased quarter-on-quarter by 0.3 % in Q4 2021, according to an estimate published by Eurostat. This follows an improvement of 2.3 % in Q3. In year-on-year terms, GDP increased by 4.6 % in Q4 2021. In the European Union (EU), GDP increased quarter-on-quarter by 0.4 % in Q4 2021, following an improvement of 2.2 % in Q3. In year-on-year terms, GDP increased by 4.8 % in Q4 2021.

Industrial production

In January 2022, the seasonally adjusted industrial production remained stable in the euro area and rose by 0.4% in the EU, compared with December 2021, according to estimates from Eurostat. In December 2021, industrial production rose by 1.3% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU.

In January 2022 compared with January 2021, industrial production decreased by 1.3% in the euro area and increased by 0.4% in the EU.

Production in construction

In January 2022 compared with December 2021, seasonally adjusted production in the construction sector increased by 3.9% in both the euro area and the EU, according to first estimates from Eurostat. In December 2021, production in construction fell by 1.5% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU. In January 2022 compared with January 2021, production in construction increased by 4.1% in the euro area and by 4.8% in the EU.

Retail trade

In February 2022, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 0.3% in both the euro area and the EU, compared with January 2022, according to estimates from Eurostat. In January 2022, the retail trade volume increased by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU. In February 2022 compared with February 2021, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 5.0% in the euro area and by 5.4% in the EU.

Inflation

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 7.5% in March 2022, up from 5.9% in February. In March 2021, the annual inflation rate was at 1.3% in the euro area.

Unemployment

In February 2022, the euro area seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.8%, down from 6.9% in January 2022 and from 8.2% in February 2021. The EU unemployment rate was 6.2% in February 2022, down from 6.3% in January 2022 and from 7.5% in February 2021.

Eurostat estimates that 13.267 million men and women in the EU, of whom 11.155 million in the euro area, were unemployed in February 2022. Compared with January 2022, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 221 000 in the EU and by 181 000 in the euro area. Compared with February 2021, unemployment decreased by 2.568 million in the EU and by 2.150 million in the euro area.

Economic sentiment indicator

DG ECFIN’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) dropped substantially in the euro area in March 2022, decreasing month-on-month by 5.4 points to 108.5. The decline was mostly due to plummeting consumer confidence, accompanied by marked losses also in retail trade and industry confidence; by contrast, confidence improved slightly in services and remained broadly unchanged in construction. The ESI for the EU dropped by 5.3 points to 107.5 in March 2022.

€-COIN

The €-coin rose again in March (to 0.77 from 0.59 in February). It should however be noted that given the date of publication of the data, some of the indicator’s underlying variables refer to periods prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine .

The resilience of business confidence and the recovery in equity prices are factors contributing to the positive trend of the indicator and there are also signs that demand is holding up.

Business Climate Indicator (BCI)

The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area (EA) decreased by 1.67 points in March 2022, following a decrease by 1.79 points in February.

Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs)

The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to growth losing momentum in Europe, but a stable growth in other major OECD economies.

In the in euro area as a whole, including Germany, France and Italy, the CLIs anticipate growth losing momentum, driven by a contraction in consumer confidence indicators and the surge of inflation. Among major OECD economies outside Europe, the CLIs remain above trend and continue to signal stable growth in the United States as well as in Japan and Canada.

Among major emerging-market economies, the CLIs for China (industrial sector) and India continue to point to stable growth, whereas in Brazil the CLI continues to anticipate slowing growth.

The CLIs aim to anticipate fluctuations in economic activity over the next six to nine months based on a range of forward-looking indicators such as order books, confidence indicators, building permits, long-term interest rates, new car registrations and many more. Most indicators are available up to March 2022. It is worth noting that ongoing uncertainties related to COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are resulting in higher than usual fluctuations in the CLI and its components. As such, the CLIs should continue to be interpreted with care and their magnitude should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of growth in economic activity.

DZ BANK’s Euro-Indicator

The DZ BANK’s Euro-Indicator fell by 1.8% last month - the sharpest decline since the start of the Corona crisis in spring 2020. The Euro indicator now stands at 99.8 points, 1.3% lower than a year ago. In February, the 12-month rate of change was still +1.8%.

In March, almost all components of the euro indicator deteriorated. There was a par ticularly marked downturn in sentiment indicators, as shown by both the surveys of private households and the surveys of companies. The strongest negative impetus in March came from the deterioration in consumer confidence. The slump in European consumer confidence mainly reflects the collapse in households’ expectations about the general economic situation in their country, but also the deterioration in their own assessment of their future financial situation, which even fell to a historic low. Consumers’ intentions to make major purchases recently fell to a 13-month low. The regular surveys of the manufacturing sector showed that companies’ production expectations in particular have suffered as a result of recent events.

Winter forecasts

European Commission: The EU economy entered the new year on a weaker note than previously projected. Having regained the pre-pandemic output level in summer last year, a moderate slowdown was already expected in the Autumn Forecast. However, since then headwinds to growth have intensified. After a soft patch, the economic expansion is set to regain pace in the second quarter of this year and remain robust over the forecast horizon. This forecast assumes that the impact on the economy caused by the current wave of infections will be short-lived and that most of the supply bottlenecks will fade in the course of the year. Finally, inflationary pressures are expected to moderate towards the end of the year. Looking beyond this short-term turbulence, a continuously improving labour market, large accumulated savings, still favourable financing conditions, and the full deployment of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) are all set to support a prolonged and robust expansionary phase.

IMF: The global economic recovery is continuing, even as the pandemic resurges. The fault lines opened up by COVID-19 are looking more persistent — near-term divergences are expected to leave lasting imprints on medium-term performance. Vaccine access and early policy support are the principal drivers of the gaps. In most cases, rising inflation reflects pandemic-related supply-demand mismatches and higher commodity prices compared to their low base from a year ago. National authorities’ established policies are assumed to be maintained.

OECD: The euro area aggregate includes OECD member countries (Cyprus and Malta are excluded from the EA aggregate as they are not OECD member countries). Amid the uncertainty, the OECD estimates global economic growth could be more than 1 percentage point lower this year than was projected before the conflict, while inflation, already high at the start of the year, could be higher than it would have been if war had not broken out by at least a further 2.5 percentage points on aggregate across countries.

ECB: Cut-off date: The June and December projections only include information on the outlook for individual euro area countries. Compared with the December 2021 projections, the technical assumptions include significantly higher oil and non-oil energy prices and higher interest rates. The technical assumptions about interest rates and commodity prices are based on market expectations with a cut-off date of 28 February 2022.The March 2022 ECB staff projections are below those of other forecasters for growth in 2022, while for inflation in 2022 they are well above other forecasts, owing to the inclusion of the impact of Russia’s (unprovoked, unjustified) invasion of Ukraine and more recent data. For the outer years of the horizon, the differences are more limited. Despite the downward revision compared with the December 2021 Eurosystem staff projection for growth in 2022, the March 2022 ECB staff projection is only slightly below other more recent projections for 2022 and is still somewhat above other forecasts for 2023. As regards inflation, the ECB staff projection is far higher than the other forecasts for 2022 owing to the more recent cut-off date, which made it possible to include the February 2022 HICP flash estimate and more up-to-date technical assumptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.